India- most resilient among the top ten leading economies: PHD Chamber

No.PR-134

December 22, 2018

New Delhi

India- most resilient among the top ten leading economies: PHD Chamber

India’s growth rate has increased from 6.9% (average) in the pre-Lehman crisis era (1999-2008) to 7.4% (average) in the post-Lehman crisis era (2009-2018), said an analysis conducted by the PHD Research Bureau, the research arm of PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Long-term growth trend of Indian economy has been very strongly supported by the dynamic policy environment by the government and calibrated measures undertaken by the financial institutions, said Mr. Rajeev Talwar, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a press statement issued here today.

The economic growth rates (on an average) of the other leading economies have declined during the same time period.

Growth Trajectory of Leading Economies

S.No. Leading Economies Pre-Lehman Era (1999-2008 Post-Lehman Era (2009-2018) Analysis of GDP Growth Rate Change in GDP Growth Rate over the two decades
1 India 6.9% 7.4% Rise 0.5
2 Germany 1.6% 1.4% Fall -0.2
3 Japan 1.0% 0.8% Fall -0.2
4 USA 2.7% 1.8% Fall -0.9
5 Canada 2.9% 1.8% Fall -1.1
6 France 2.1% 0.9% Fall -1.2
6 UK 2.5% 1.3% Fall -1.2
6 Italy 1.3% -0.3% Fall -1.6
7 China 10.1% 7.9% Fall -2.2
8 Brazil 3.5% 1.2% Fall -2.3

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from IMF database

Note: IMF database is used to maintain the consistency of the yearly growth rates across the economies.

India is not only one of the fastest moving economies in the world ecosystem, but over the years, it has also grown from strength to strength, said Mr. Rajeev Talwar.

In the post-crisis decade of 2009-2018, though Chinese economy has grown by 7.9% (average) but when compared to the pre-crisis decade of 1999-2008, it has shown a weak resilience with a 2.2% decline in its economic growth rate, he said.

Further, as per the IMF database, the size of the Chinese economy has increased tremendously from US$ 4.6 trillion (year 2007) to US$ 13.5 trillion (year 2017), but India, surpassing China, has exhibited the highest degree of resilience to the global turmoil of 2008.

India is the only country whose economic growth rate has increased whereas the other leading economies have witnessed a fall in their economic growth rates.

In terms of resilience of the GDP growth rate to the financial crisis of 2008, it can be observed that after India, German and Japanese economies are strongly resilient with a marginal decline of 0.2% in each of their respective economic growth rates whereas Brazil has shown the lowest level of resilience with a fall of 2.3% in its economic growth rate.

The dynamic policy environment during the past few years has paved the way for the Indian economy to achieve a double digit growth rate during the next few years. Despite the challenges at the domestic front and from the global economic environment, India’s long term trend exhibits a stable and resilient economic growth, said Mr. Rajeev Talwar.

Going ahead, a constant focus on reforms in agriculture sector, continuous policy facilitation to MSME’s and improvement in export infrastructure in terms of logistics and procedures would go a long way to foster a strong and sustainable growth trajectory, said Mr. Rajeev Talwar.

Ends.

Koteshwar Prasad Dobhal

Consultant (PR)