Economic recovery gains momentum in July 2021: PHD Chamber

No. PR- 109

September 22, 2021

New Delhi

 

 

 

The PHDCCI Economic and Business Momentum (EBM) Index

 

Economic recovery gains momentum in July 2021: PHD Chamber

 

Key economic and business indicators have shown further improvement in July 2021, supported by the effective policies of the Government and improved business sentiments. This reflects that economic recovery has once again gained momentum, said Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.

 

Lead economic and business indicators have shown a higher growth in July 2021 as compared with July 2020. PHDCCI Economic & Business Momentum (EBM) Index at 101.9 for July 2021 is higher as compared with 95.5 for July 2020, said Sanjay Aggarwal.

 

Economic  recovery so far (Y-o-Y)

 

PHDCCI EBM Index 2018-19=100 July 2017 July 2018 July 2019 July 2020 July 2021
96.3 99.5 101.1 95.5 101.9

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index

 

Lead economic and business indicators such as merchandise exports, external commercial borrowings, GST collections and SENSEX have shown a noteworthy improvement in July 2021 as compared to the July 2020, said Sanjay Aggarwal.

 

On the back of declining new Coronavirus cases, continued unlocking in various parts of the country, improved consumer confidence, positive business sentiments and calibrated economic reforms announced by the Government, the economy is recovering at a fast pace from the lows of May 2021, said Sanjay Aggarwal.

 

Sequentially, the PHDCCI EBM Index has shown an increase for July 2021 to the level of 101.9 as compared to 98.0 for June 2021, due to significant pick-up in the economic activity, said Sanjay Aggarwal. 

 

Economic recovery so far (Sequential)

 

PHDCCI EBM Index 2018-19=100 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021
99.3 99.3 100.6 100.6 95.3 98.0 101.9

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index

 

The quarterly movement of PHDCCI EBM Index and quarterly GDP growth rates are highly correlated at 0.8 as depicted in Chart-2, said Sanjay Aggarwal.

 

Chart-1 : PHDCCI EBM Index: Monthly Trend (Base: 2018-19=100) Chart-2 : PHDCCI EBM Index (Base: 2018-19=100) and GDP Growth Rates (in %): Quarterly Trend

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index; GDP growth figures compiled from MOSPI

 

At this juncture, there is a need to further fuel the drivers of household consumption and private investments to enhance the aggregate demand in the economy as it will have an accelerated effect on expansion of capital investments in the country, said Sanjay Aggarwal

 

The Government should frontload the National Infra Pipeline expenditure as increased spending on infrastructure will give a multiplier effect to rejuvenate the aggregate demand in the economy, said Aggarwal

          

More and more direct benefit transfers needs to be considered for the urban and rural poor under the various welfare schemes in addition to the free distribution of dry rations till Diwali as already announced by the Hon’ble Prime Minister.

 

Vaccination of population should be continued with a more faster pace, let’s target to vaccinate at least half of the population with both the doses by end October 2021, said Sanjay Aggarwal.

 

PHDCCI EBM (Economic and Business Momentum) Index has shown steady recovery from the lows of 78.3 for April 2020 to 100.3 for April 2021, 95.3 for May 2021 as compared with 85.7 for May 2020, 98 for June 2021 as compared to 91.6 in June 2020 and 101.9 for July 2021 as compared to 95.5 in July 2020  with a base of 2018-19=100.

 

PHDCCI EBM Index is a composite index of 25 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which considers the demand and supply indicators to present a broad perspective of the economy. The 25 indicators include the IIP Consumer durable goods, IIP Consumer non-durable goods, IIP Capital Goods, IIP Intermediate Goods, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petroleum Refinery Products, Fertilisers, Steel, Cement, Electricity, Consumption of Petroleum products, Export Merchandise, Export Services, India Freight Traffic, Credit to Agriculture, Credit to Industry, Credit to service sector, Personal Loans, GST Collections, SENSEX, FDI Equity Inflows, External commercial borrowings and Unemployment.

 

Full PHDCCI EBM Index report attached

PHDCCI EBM Index

 

Base: 2018-19=100

Sr No Economic Indicators July-20 July-21 (July'21 - July'20)
1 IIP Consumer durable goods 84 101 17
2 IIP Consumer non-durable goods 121 119 (-)2
3 IIP Capital Goods 73 94 21
4 IIP Intermediate Goods 101 115 14
5 Coal 102 122 19
6 Crude Oil 86 83 (-)3
7 Natural Gas 90 107 17
8 Petroleum Refinery Products 93 100 6
9 Fertilisers 110 111 1
10 Steel 116 127 11
11 Cement 105 127 23
12 Electricity 117 127 10
13 Consumption of Petroleum products 96 104 8
14 Export Merchandise Growth 109 163 54
15 Export Services 122 135 14
16 India Freight Traffic 104 107 3
17 Credit to Agriculture 105 112 7
18 Credit to Industry 101 101 0
19 Credit to service sector 110 103 (-)7
20 Personal Loans 111 111 0
21 GST Collection 87 116 29
22 SENSEX (Daily average) 134 191 57
23 FDI Equity Inflows 82 157 75
24 External commercial borrowings 117 187 70
25 Unemployment 97 97 0
Composite Weighted Index 96 102 6

 

 

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index Note: For calculation purpose, the FDI figure for July 2021 is average of last 3 months; figures are rounded off

 

 

 

End

Media Division

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry