India most resilient among the leading economies: PHD Chamber

PR No – 19 

19th December, 2023

New Delhi

India most resilient among the leading economies: PHD Chamber

India outperformed in the post-pandemic years as compared with the leading economies

According to an analysis conducted by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, India has emerged as the most resilient economy among the top ten leading economies.

The industry body released a research report on “Geopolitical Spillovers and Resilience of the Indian Economy” during the Conference on “Geopolitical Spillovers and Resilience of the Indian Economy” held on 19th December 2023 at the PHD House, New Delhi.

A panel of esteemed dignitaries, Shri Sanjeet Singh, Senior Adviser, NITI Aayog as Chief Guest, Dr. R. Kavita Rao, Director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy as Guest of Honour, Shri Abheek Barua, Chief Economist and Executive Vice President, HDFC Bank as Guest of Honour, Dr Nagesh Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, and esteemed panelist Shri T K Arun, Ex Editor, Opinion, The Economic Times, Professor Shivshankar Menon, Chair of the Ashoka Centre for Chinese Studies, Ashoka University and former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of India, participated in the Conference.

Shri Sanjeet Singh lauded the development of India and characterized it as the democratic dividend arising from political stability. He emphasized the accomplishments of UPI and the Direct Benefit Transfer initiative in India. He emphasized the indispensability of solar energy for India’s attainment of energy independence.  Dr R. Kavita Rao put forward the idea that the World should strive for a decrease in the number of tax slabs and conflicts. In an optimistic outlook, Shri Abheek Barua has projected a growth of approximately 6.5% for FY 24.

Mr Barua encourages a positive shift in perspective by emphasizing the importance of understanding our competitors.  Dr Nagesh Kumar emphasized that in the current global economic landscape, the spotlight is firmly on emerging markets, and India stands out as a beacon of vast potential, contributing significantly to worldwide economic growth.

Professor Shivshankar Menon emphasized that India must prioritize the domestic production of goods, fostering self-reliance and diminishing dependence on external economies. The strategic move towards manufacturing its products not only bolsters India’s economic autonomy but enhances resilience in the face of global uncertainties.

Mr. TK Arun highlighted the need for a multipolar World, particularly in the aftermath of the pandemic, where geopolitical tensions have hampered global economic recovery. Highlighting the interconnectedness of economies, he emphasized the importance of collaborative efforts among nations.

The Conference culminated with concluding remarks by Shri Chaitanya Hari Singhania, Vice President – Business Development, JK Paper Ltd. The panel discussion was moderated by Ms. Meghna Mittal, Deputy News Editor, Money Control.

The analysis conducted by the Research Bureau, PHDCCI, is based on five key economic indicators, GDP growth, export growth, total investment, gross national savings, and debt to GDP ratio. As these indicators are vulnerable and have many domestic and global headwinds, the industry body decided and chose these indicators to check the resilience of the leading economies. The pre-pandemic years (2018, 2019), pandemic years (2020, 2021), post-pandemic years (2022, 2023), and outlook for 2024 and 2025 have been observed based on their performance in the leading economic indicators.

The report employs the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projections from 2018 to 2025 to scrutinize the economic resilience of the World’s top ten economies. The primary objective is to identify the leading resilient economy among them, by considering five pivotal macroeconomic indicators.

The five indicators for every country in a particular year (according to their ranking in that particular year) were assigned scores out of ten each. Aggregate scores were calculated over two years, providing a comprehensive assessment of economic performance. The total scores were given out of hundred (aggregate score for two years) i.e., out of 50 for each year. The country achieving the highest aggregate score is ranked first, and subsequent rankings follow based on their cumulative scores.

India’s resilience has improved from second position in pre-pandemic and pandemic years to first position in post-pandemic and futuristic years. China’s resilience slipped from first position in pre-pandemic and pandemic years to second position in post-pandemic and futuristic years.

India has gained significantly high immunity in the post-pandemic years with the effective economic reforms undertaken by the government, said Shri Shashvat Somany, Chair, the Economic Affairs Committee, PHDCCI.

The post-COVID geopolitical developments such as the Russia-Ukraine War, and the recent Gaza-Israel conflict haven’t impacted the growth trajectory of the Indian economy as the country grew 7.7% in the H1 (first half) of 2023-24, he said.

Going forward, according to the International Monetary Fund’s data, the Indian economy’s future trajectory remains strong, and India will be in first place in terms of resilience in 2024 and 2025, said Dr. Ranjeet Mehta, Executive Director, PHD Chamber.

In the futuristic resilient trajectory, India’s 1st position will be followed by China, Russia, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Italy, the USA, and the UK, said Dr. Mehta.

The size of the Indian economy is expected to surpass USD 4 Trillion by 2024-25, USD 5 Trillion by 2026-27, and USD 7 Trillion in 2030, said Dr SP Sharma, Chief Economist, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The fundamentals of the Indian economy have been strengthened more in the post-pandemic years on the back of various economic, business, and socio-economic reforms undertaken by the government, said Dr SP Sharma.

*END*

Warm Regards,

Media Division

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry