No. PR- 261
March 13, 2021
PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends for February 2021
Economy seen consolidating in March 2021 with new hopes of double digit growth in FY 2021-22: PHD Chamber
Increased passenger vehicle sales, GST Collections, improved railway freight and strong stock market in February 2021 indicate steady economic movement, says the industry body PHD Chamber
Economic activity is expected to consolidate in the month of March 2021 as the Covid-19 impacted difficult financial year 2020-21 is winding with the new hopes of next financial year with a great growth trajectory of Indian economy, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
Out of the 10 indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends) of economic and business activity tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 7 have performed positive in February 2021 of which passenger vehicle sales has shown a highest growth of 18% over the corresponding month in previous year, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Though COVID-19 cases are re-emerging in some states including, Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, the movement of Indian economy remains steady in February 2021, he said
We are happy to note that the vaccination drive in the country is moving at a faster rate, with more than 2.6 crore vaccines being administered so far, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Positive GDP growth to the level of 0.4% in Q3 FY 2020-21 and a steady improvement in lead economic and business indicators would go a long way to strengthen the economic growth in the coming quarters with the enhanced level of confidence of businesses, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Chart 1: Economy out of 10 based on PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends Chart 2: Economic and Business indicators’ growth rates: February 2021 (in %)
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI
Note: Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate and unemployment are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; year on year (y-o-y) growth is calculated for the indicators including GST Collection, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports; sequential (month over month) growth is calculated for the indicators including Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market and Manufacturing PMI.
10 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply indicators along with external and financial sectors indicators, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Economic and business indicators such as GST Collections, E-way Bills, Railway freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales, Stock Market and Exports have shown a positive y-o-y growth in February 2021 as compared with February 2020, while, Exchange Rate has shown positive sequential growth in February 2021 as compared with January 2021, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far
|S. No.||Economic and Business Indicators||September 2020||October 2020||Growth||November 2020||Growth||December 2020||Growth||January 2021||Growth||February 2021||Growth|
|1||GST Collection (in Rs crore)||95480||105155||10.2%||↑||104963||1.4%||↑||115174||11.6%||↑||119847||8.1%||↑||113143||2.1%||↑|
|2||E way bill (in Millions)||57.4||64.1||21.4%||↑||55.3||3.8%||↑||64.1||15.9%||↑||62.9||12.1%||↑||63.8||11.6%||↑|
|3||Unemployment Rate (in %) (Sign Changed)*||6.67||6.98||(-)4.6%||↓||6.51||7%||↑||9.06||(-)39.2%||↓||6.53||27.9%||↑||6.9||(-)4.1%||↓|
|4||Railway Freight (MT)||102||108||15.3%||↑||110||9%||↑||118.13||8.7%||↑||119.8||8.5%||↑||112.3||9.8%||↑|
|5||Passenger Vehicle Sales (units)||272027||310294||14.2%||↑||264898||5%||↑||276412||24.1%||↑||276554||11.1%||↑||281380||17.9%||↑|
|6||Forex Reserves (in US$ Billion)||499.9||518.3||3.7%||↑||575.2||11%||↑||581.1||1.0%||↑||590.2||1.6%||↑||584.6||(-)1.0%||↓|
|7||Exchange Rate (INR/USD) (Sign changed)*||73.56||74.55||(-)1.3%||↓||73.99||1%||↑||73.04||1.3%||↑||72.88||0.2%||↑||72.78||0.1%||↑|
|8||Stock Market (SENSEX monthly average)||38379||40115||4.5%||↑||43011||7%||↑||46212||7.4%||↑||48580||5.1%||↑||50783||4.8%||↑|
|9||Exports (US$ Billion)||27.0||25.0||(-)5.2%||↓||23.00||(-)11%||↓||27.15||(-)0.8%||↓||27.45||5.7%||↑||27.67||0.1%||↑|
|10||Manufacturing PMI (points)||56.8||58.9||3.7%||↑||56.3||(-)4.4%||↓||56.4||0.2%||↑||57.7||2.3%||↑||57.5||(-)0.4%||↓|
|Overall growth performance of indicators of QET||7↑/10||8↑/10||8↑/10||10↑/10||7↑/10|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI, compiled from various sources
Note : *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate and unemployment are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; year on year (y-o-y) growth is calculated for the indicators including GST Collection, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports; sequential (month over month) growth is calculated for the indicators including Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market and Manufacturing PMI.
At this juncture, to continue the pace of economic momentum, rapid administration of COVID-19 vaccination, especially in the States where COVID-19 cases are re-emerging, becomes crucial, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Further, immediate policy attention is required towards credit access to industry. Credit disbursement should be the top priority at this juncture by the banking sector. The focus should be on ensuring provision of hassle free disbursements of loans vis-à-vis enhanced liquidity for MSMEs, especially in rural sectors, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Also, there is a need to lower interest rates for consumers and businesses, lesser compliances for MSMEs vis-à-vis ease of doing business at the ground level, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry