No. PR- 288
April 3, 2021
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index March 2021
Economic activity in March remains strong, Q4 FY 2021 GDP growth seen at more than 1 per cent: PHD Chamber
The series of broad-based policy measures undertaken by the Government during the last 12 months have enhanced the economic activity at significantly higher level, the March month economic activity based on the composite index of three broad economic indicators including GST collections, Passenger Vehicle Sales and SENSEX hits all-time high at 126.6 at a base year of 2018-19 equal to 100, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a press statement issued here today.
The trend in PHDCCI Economy GPS Index shows that the Indian economy is moving forward in the direction of fast economic momentum to achieve a double digit growth in FY 2021-22.
On the back of robust measures of policy stimulus undertaken by the Government and the announcement of a demand creating, growth oriented and investment stimulating union budget 2021-22, the higher trend of PHDCCI Economy GPS Index to the tune of its all-time high value of 126.6 in March 2021 reinforces the growing business and demand momentum in the country and further the government’s view that the economy is in a V-shaped recovery, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index during the period April – March of FY 2020-21 stands at 95.2 as compared with April – March FY 2019-2020 at 97.8. The growing trend of PHDCCI Economy GPS Index indicate a stronger outlook of Indian Economy in the FY2021–22, further supporting the PHDCCI’s revised growth projection for Indian Economy at (-)7.2% for the current financial year 2020-21.
The growing uptick in the performance of PHDCCI Economy GPS Index over the last few months suggests its strong correlation with the GDP growth rate. A sharp recovery in GDP growth in Q3 FY 2020-21 at 0.4% as compared with (-)7.3% in Q2 and (-) 24.4% in Q1 2020-21 (as per revised NSO estimates) is a result of impactful reforms undertaken by the Government since March 2020. Further, as a result of recovering investor sentiment, economy has potential to accelerate at 11% growth trajectory in the next financial year 2021-22 as envisioned by the FY 2020-21 Economic survey of Government of India, said Mr. Aggarwal.
GPS Index: Monthly Trend Movement of GDP and GPS over the quarters
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
Note: GDP growth rate figure for Q4 FY 2020-21 is projection made by PHDCCI
On a monthly basis, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has shown sharp recovery from the lows of 39.6 in April 2020 to 50.1 in May 2020, 75.1 in June 2020, 85.6 in July 2020, 90.5 in August 2020, 100.2 in September 2020, 109.6 in October 2020, 106.9 in November 2020, 114.9 in December 2020, 121.7 in January 2021, 122.0 in February 2021 and 126.6 in March 2021, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal
The economic and business indicators have shown a remarkable improvement due to which Economy GPS index increased to 123.4 in Q4 FY 2020-21 from 110.4 in Q3 FY 2020-21, 92.09 in Q2 FY 2020-21 and 54.1 Q1 FY 2020-21, said Mr. Aggarwal.
For the month of March 2021, values of passenger vehicles sales and SENSEX (Daily average) of PHDCCI Economy GPS Index stood at their all-time high as measured across the last four financial years. Sales of passenger vehicles grew for the seventh straight month and stood all-time high at 3,21,765 units in March 2021. Further, SENSEX (Daily average) was at 50101 and GST Collection crossed ₹ 1 lakh crore-mark for the sixth straight month and stood at ₹ 1,23,902 crore in in the month of March 2021, an increase of 26.9 per cent compared with the same month last year in 2020 , said Mr. Aggarwal
Going forward, there is a need to further fuel the drivers of household consumption and business investment for increased aggregate demand, while moving towards a more inclusive economy and ensuring fiscal sustainability, said Mr. Aggarwal
Demand creation will have an accelerator effect on expansion of capital investments in the country. Additionally, greater infrastructural spending by the government would help to stimulate confidence among firms and households, generating stronger consumption, investment, and employment upturns, he said
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy. The three broad indicators are representing not only demand and supply but also revenue growth of the government and financial markets movement in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicate mood of the investors both domestic and foreign and India’s attractiveness to the foreign investors on the back of various reforms undertaken by the government, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal
Movement of Economy GPS over the months
|Month- Year||Economy GPS Index|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry