No. PR – 138
November 5th, 2021
New Delhi
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index October 2021
Economic recovery strengthens in the recent months: PHD Chamber
The economic recovery has strengthened in the recent months on the back of rapid progress in vaccinations, festive season and resultant increase in consumer and industry sentiments; the lead economic and business indicators have shown noteworthy improvement in October 2021, said Mr. Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for October 2021 has increased to 131 as compared to 113.1 for September 2021 (Base year 2018-19 = 100). The sequential growth of SENSEX (average of daily close) has increased by 2.8% from 58781 in September 2021 to 60422 in October 2021. The sequential growth of GST collections increased by 11.2% from Rs. 1,17,010 crore in September 2021 to Rs. 1,30,127 crore in October 2021. The sequential growth of passenger vehicles increased by 62.5% in October 2021 from 160070 units in September 2021 to 260067 units in October 2021, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
| PHDCCI Economy GPS Index 2018-19=100 | January 2021 | February 2021 | March 2021 | April 2021 | May 2021 | June 2021 | July 2021 | August 2021 | September 2021 | October 2021 |
| 121.7 | 122.0 | 122.9 | 124.3 | 91.5 | 107.5 | 119.7 | 116.7 | 113.1 | 131.0 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
Though passenger vehicle sales have increased sequentially on the back of high festive demand, however, shortages of raw material, high input prices, among others, are impacting the production possibilities and anticipated sales volumes, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index during the period April–October of FY 2021-22 stands at 114.8 as compared to 78.7 for April–October FY 2020-2021. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index at 131 for October 2021 is higher by 21.3 points from the Economy GPS Index for October 2020 at 109.6, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
| PHDCCI Economy GPS Index 2018-19=100 | October 2017 | October 2018 | October 2019 | October 2020 | October 2021 |
| 94.9 | 99.8 | 102.0 | 109.6 | 131.0 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has shown sharp recovery from the lows of 39.6 for April 2020 to 124.3 for April 2021, 91.5 for May 2021 as compared with 50.1 for May 2020, 107.5 for June 2021 as compared with 75.1 for June 2020, 119.7 for July 2021 as compared with 85.6 for July 2020, 116.7 for August 2021 as compared with 90.5 for August 2020, 113.1 for September 2021 as compared with 100.2 for September 2020 and 131 for October 2021 as compared with 109.6 for October 2020.
| Chart 1: GPS Index: Monthly Trend | Chart 2: Movement of GDP and GPS over the quarters |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.
At this juncture, there is a need to address the high commodity prices and shortages of raw material to support the consumption and private investments in the country, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
The drivers of household consumption needs to be further strengthened to enhance the aggregate demand as it will have an accelerated effect on expansion of capital investments, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
More and more direct benefit transfers needs to be considered for the urban and rural poor under the various welfare schemes in addition to the free distribution of dry rations till Diwali as already announced by the Hon’ble Prime Minister, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy. The three broad indicators are representing not only demand and supply in the economy but also revenue growth of the government and movement of financial markets in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicate mood of both domestic and foreign investors.
Movement of Economy GPS over the months
| Month- Year | Economy GPS Index |
| Jul-17 | 72.3 |
| Aug-17 | 96.8 |
| Sep-17 | 98.2 |
| Oct-17 | 94.9 |
| Nov-17 | 92.0 |
| Dec-17 | 88.0 |
| Jan-18 | 96.7 |
| Feb-18 | 93.6 |
| Mar-18 | 97.8 |
| Apr-18 | 102.1 |
| May-18 | 100.1 |
| Jun-18 | 97.7 |
| Jul-18 | 100.9 |
| Aug-18 | 101.2 |
| Sep-18 | 101.4 |
| Oct-18 | 99.8 |
| Nov-18 | 97.4 |
| Dec-18 | 93.7 |
| Jan-19 | 101.4 |
| Feb-19 | 98.8 |
| Mar-19 | 105.6 |
| Apr-19 | 104.0 |
| May-19 | 98.1 |
| Jun-19 | 97.3 |
| Jul-19 | 94.3 |
| Aug-19 | 91.0 |
| Sep-19 | 92.4 |
| Oct-19 | 102.0 |
| Nov-19 | 103.9 |
| Dec-19 | 101.0 |
| Jan-20 | 107.1 |
| Feb-20 | 103.2 |
| Mar-20 | 80.0 |
| Apr-20 | 39.6 |
| May-20 | 50.1 |
| Jun-20 | 75.1 |
| Jul-20 | 85.6 |
| Aug-20 | 90.5 |
| Sep-20 | 100.2 |
| Oct-20 | 109.6 |
| Nov-20 | 106.9 |
| Dec-20 | 114.8 |
| Jan-21 | 121.7 |
| Feb-21 | 122.0 |
| Mar-21 | 122.9 |
| Apr-21 | 124.3 |
| May-21 | 91.5 |
| June-21 | 107.5 |
| July-21 | 119.7 |
| August-21 | 116.7 |
| September-21 | 113.1 |
| October -21 | 131.0 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI GPS Index
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End
Media Division
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry