April 18, 2020
Calibrated exit from lockdown and significant financial stimulus will retain economic growth around 4% in 2020-21: PHD Chamber
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry has suggested a calibrated exit from the lockdown for consideration of the government to mitigate the daunting impact of pandemic COVID-19 and to achieve better economic growth in the coming quarters.
Dr D K Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry released the report on Calibrated Approach to Exit from the Lockdown in a webinar organised by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry today. Shri Gopal Krishna Agarwal, National Spokesperson of Bhartiya Janta Party (Economic Affairs) graced the occasion as the Chief Guest
Industry body suggests a complete opening up of activities from April 20, 2020 in all green zones, with 50% workforce, barring all social gatherings (including shopping malls, religious places) and mandatory social distancing, in a press statement issued here today.
25% workforce may be allowed in all non-hotspot zones, barring social gathering (including shopping malls, religious places) and mandatory social distancing with opening up of all the activities, said the industry body, PHD Chamber
Status quo to be maintained in all the hotspot areas with more strictness to fight the pandemic covid-19, said the industry body.
Considering the backward and forward linkages of business firms, it becomes necessary to enable the entire supply chain of trade and industry to resume their activities together (except hotspots districts) with mandatory health guidelines, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
As complementarities of inter-industry trade linkages are high in India, we suggest to resume the industrial activities across all the states and sectors with 50% and 25% workforce in green and non-hotspot areas respectively and barring the hotspot areas, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
We are happy to note that the proactive measures undertaken by the Government to contain the spread of pandemic COVID-19 are highly effective; though the total number of COVID-19 cases is rising but at a significantly decelerating rate, said Dr D K Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a press statement issued here today.
The increase in the number of cases was at around 30% in the first week of April 2020 which has decelerated to 8% during the last four days, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
The government’s efforts have helped in maintaining the low rate of spread of pandemic, with only one in every 24 samples testing positive, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
PHD Chamber’s calibrated exit from lockdown is highly appreciable as it considers backward and forward linkages of the businesses, inter-state and inter-industry trade, said Shri Gopal Krishna Agarwal, National Spokesperson of Bhartiya Janta Party (Economic Affairs)
We appreciate that India’s GDP growth is projected at 1.9% for FY2021 and 7.4% in FY 2022 by the IMF which is one of the highest in the many advanced and emerging & developing economies, said Dr D K Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber
However, we can’t afford a less than two percent economic growth as the country has to create lot of employment opportunities for the growing young workforce, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
So, we have to convert the U shaped recovery into a V-shaped recovery with a growth rate of 4% in the current financial year with the financial support from the Government and extra ordinary efforts by the trade and industry, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
Our vision must be to emerge as a strong economic power in this extremely difficult time of the pandemic Covid-19; at this juncture all the citizens of the country should put their efforts together and pursue the goal persistently through dedicated, well-coordinated and a strong commitment toward hard work, said Dr. D K Aggarwal.
Achieving the growth rate of 4% for the current financial year 2020-21, though a herculean task, is definitely well within our potential and reach, said Dr Aggarwal
Vision of 4% growth rate should target an average 5% growth in agriculture sector, 5% in industry and 5% in services in the Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2020-21, said Dr. Aggarwal
If Q1 of 2020-21 decelerates to less than 2%, the average for the year with improved growth in remaining quarters will support a 4% growth for the year 2020-21, said Dr. Aggarwal
As services sector is one of the most impacted sectors in this difficult pandemic COVID-19 period, but the sector has immense potential to support growth as and when the economic activity is resumed, said Dr. Aggarwal
However, manufacturing sector will at least take 3 months to come back to its normal growth trajectory, said Dr Aggarwal
Agriculture sector is a low hanging fruit at this juncture as we have opportunity to boost more and more growth in agriculture with lot of efforts and technology to compensate the loss from manufacturing and services sector activity, he said.
Enhanced growth of agriculture will benefit the rural segment, increase the rural income, create demand for goods and services and push the growth of manufacturing and services sector, said Dr D K Aggarwal.
A significant stimulus of Rs 16 lakh crores which is 7% of GDP would help the economy to grow more than 4% in the current financial year 2020-21 and convert the U shape recovery in V shape and save lakhs of job losses in the country, said Dr Aggarwal.
This will go a long way in boosting the morale of the industry and help the economy bounce in the coming quarters, he said.
We are optimistic that India will emerge victorious in the fight against pandemic COVID- 19 by safeguarding both lives and livelihoods of its countrymen, said Dr Aggarwal.
Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal, Senior Vice President, PHD Chamber; Sh. Saurabh Sanyal, Secretary General, PHD Chamber, Dr. S P Sharma, Chief Economist, PHD Chamber joined the session along with many senior members of PHD Chamber and deliberated on various crucial issues of trade and industry in the wake of pandemic Covid-19.
Report on Calibrated Approach to Exit from the Lockdown prepared by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry attached.
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry