9th May, 2022
India consistently resilient in the global economy: PHD Chamber
India is constantly growing above the pre – pandemic level of GDP growth showing its strong resilience during the post pandemic and geo – political developments, said an analysis conducted by PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
According to the recent IMF data, India recovered significantly from (-) 5.8% GDP growth in 2020 to 9.1% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022 with projected growth rate of 5.9% in 2023, said the industry body, PHDCCI.
The growth rates for 2021 and 2022 (average) are significantly above the growth rate of 3.9% posted in pre-pandemic year 2019, said industry body.
India has proven its reliance not only by sharply recovering from the pandemic years, but also consistently growing more than 6% (average) in the post pandemic years. India’s growth rates for 2023 – 2028 are significantly above the top 10 leading economies and overall world economic growth, said Mr Saket Dalmia, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The growth projections for 2023 to 2028 are also at the highest as compared with the top 10 leading economies, said Mr Saket Dalmia.
The recovery process of many of the economies has been impacted by post – pandemic geo – political conflict between Russia and Ukraine, sky rocketed commodity prices, high inflation trajectory and synchronized move by the centrals banks in increasing the interest rates, said Mr Saket Dalmia.
World economic growth had recovered sharply in 2021 at 6.2% from a low of (-) 2.8% in 2020, however, world economic growth again decelerated to 3.4% in 2022 and projected to decelerate further at 2.8% in 2023, said Mr Saket Dalmia.
In 2023, among the Top 10 leading economies, 8 economies including United States, China, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Italy and Brazil, will perform below their GDP growth rates of pre pandemic level of 2019.
According to IMF data, India`s growth trajectory is significantly strong as economic growth will be above the 6% in 2023-2028. China will be growing less than at 5% as compared with India’s growth rate of 6% during 2023-2028, said Mr. Dalmia
Going ahead, continued economic reforms in India would further strengthen the economic fundamentals of the country to maintain steady economic growth trajectory in the coming months, said Mr Saket Dalmia.
Strengthening of India’s connectivity with Global Value Chains (GVCs) will help to improve supply side bottlenecks and reduce costs of doing business, said Mr Dalmia.
Enhanced competitiveness of the Indian economy will attract more and more investments and help to create more employment opportunities for the growing young population in the country, said Mr Dalmia.
However, industry needs a great hand holding in such a difficult environment caused by global economic uncertainties and volatile inflationary conditions, said Mr Dalmia.
We need to focus more on the manufacturing sector as high cost of borrowings, high prices of raw materials have impacted the price – cost margins of the producers. Reduced cost of doing business such as easier compliances and a robust Single Window System will enhance ease of doing business in the country, said Mr Dalmia.
Table 1: GDP Growth Rate of the Top 10 countries
|Year||World||United States||China||Japan||Germany||India||UK||France||Italy||Canada||South Korea|
|Average (2021 – 2022)||4.8||4.0||5.7||1.6||2.2||7.9||5.8||4.7||5.3||4.2||3.4|
|Average (2023 – 2028)||3.0||1.8||4.1||0.7||1.2||6.1||1.4||1.4||0.9||1.7||2.2|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, Complied from IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2023.
Table2: Ranking of the Top 10 countries according to the GDP Growth Rates
|Year||United States||China||Japan||Germany||India||UK||France||Italy||Canada||South Korea|
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry