No. PR – 182
January 6, 2022
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for December 2021
December 2021 economic activity highest of the year: PHD Chamber
Growth of passenger vehicle sales supported the economic activity in Dec 2021
Economic activity for the month of December 2021 has been recorded at the highest level of the year 2021 as the Economy GPS Index of PHDCCI went at 127.7, supported majorly by the growth of passenger vehicle sales, said the Industry Body, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
Going ahead, there is a need for continuous handholding by the Government amid the rising uncertainty caused by new Coronavirus variant-omicron and rapid rise in the Coronavirus cases in the last few days, said Mr. Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
We are confident that with the support of government, the economic activity would continuously movig ahead to attain a higher economic growth trajectory in 2021-22, said Mr. Pradeep Multani
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index captures the momentum in supply side business activity through growth in GST collections, demand side consumer behaviour through volume growth in passenger vehicle sales and sensitivity of policy reforms and impact of domestic and international economic and business environment through the movement of SENSEX at the base year of 2018-19=100, said the Industry Body.
Sequentially, the PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for December 2021 has increased to 127.7 as compared to 125.2 for November 2021. Passenger vehicles recorded a sequential growth of 18.3%, increasing from 2,15,626 units in November 2021 to 2,55,000 units in December 2021. However, the sequential growth of GST collections has decreased by (-)1.3% from Rs. 131,526 crore in November 2021 to Rs. 129,780 crore in December 2021. The sequential growth of SENSEX (average of daily close) has decreased by (-)3.0% in December 2021 from 59416 in November 2021 to 57663 in December 2021, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
|PHDCCI Economy GPS Index 2018-19=100||January 2021||February 2021||March 2021||April 2021||May 2021||June 2021||July 2021||August 2021||September 2021||October 2021||November 2021||December 2021|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index during the period April–December of FY 2021-22 stands at 117, which is 31.2 points higher than April–December FY 2020-2021 period index of 85.8, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index at 127.7 for December 2021 is higher by 13 points from the Economy GPS Index for December 2020 at 114.8, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
|PHDCCI Economy GPS Index 2018-19=100||December 2017||December 2018||December 2019||December 2020||December 2021|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has shown sharp recovery from the lows of 39.6 for April 2020 to 124.3 for April 2021, 91.5 for May 2021 as compared with 50.1 for May 2020, 107.5 for June 2021 as compared with 75.1 for June 2020, 119.7 for July 2021 as compared with 85.6 for July 2020, 116.7 for August 2021 as compared with 90.5 for August 2020, 113.1 for September 2021 as compared with 100.2 for September 2020, 127.0 for October 2021 as compared with 109.6 for October 2020, 125.2 for November 2021 as compared with 106.9 for November 2020 and 127.7 for December 2021 as compared with 114.8 for December 2020.
|Chart 1: GPS Index: Monthly Trend||Chart 2: Movement of GDP and GPS over the quarters|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.
Though passenger vehicle sales have increased sequentially, however, shortages of raw material, high input prices, among others, are impacting the production possibilities and anticipated sales volumes. At this juncture, there is a need to address the high commodity prices and shortages of raw material to support the consumption and private investments in the country, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
The drivers of household consumption needs to be further strengthened to enhance the aggregate demand as it will have an accelerated effect on expansion of capital investments, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
More and more direct benefit transfers needs to be enhanced for the urban and rural poor under the various welfare schemes of the Government to strengthen and sustain the recovery in the economic growth, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Mitigation of the pandemic impact with effective adoption of COVID appropriate behaviour and protocols is need of the hour, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy. The three broad indicators are representing not only demand and supply in the economy but also revenue growth of the government and movement of financial markets in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicate mood of both domestic and foreign investors.
Movement of Economy GPS over the months
|Month- Year||Economy GPS Index|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI GPS Index
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry