No. PR- 109
September 22, 2021
The PHDCCI Economic and Business Momentum (EBM) Index
Economic recovery gains momentum in July 2021: PHD Chamber
Key economic and business indicators have shown further improvement in July 2021, supported by the effective policies of the Government and improved business sentiments. This reflects that economic recovery has once again gained momentum, said Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
Lead economic and business indicators have shown a higher growth in July 2021 as compared with July 2020. PHDCCI Economic & Business Momentum (EBM) Index at 101.9 for July 2021 is higher as compared with 95.5 for July 2020, said Sanjay Aggarwal.
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
|PHDCCI EBM Index 2018-19=100||July 2017||July 2018||July 2019||July 2020||July 2021|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index
Lead economic and business indicators such as merchandise exports, external commercial borrowings, GST collections and SENSEX have shown a noteworthy improvement in July 2021 as compared to the July 2020, said Sanjay Aggarwal.
On the back of declining new Coronavirus cases, continued unlocking in various parts of the country, improved consumer confidence, positive business sentiments and calibrated economic reforms announced by the Government, the economy is recovering at a fast pace from the lows of May 2021, said Sanjay Aggarwal.
Sequentially, the PHDCCI EBM Index has shown an increase for July 2021 to the level of 101.9 as compared to 98.0 for June 2021, due to significant pick-up in the economic activity, said Sanjay Aggarwal.
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
|PHDCCI EBM Index 2018-19=100||January 2021||February 2021||March 2021||April 2021||May 2021||June 2021||July 2021|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index
The quarterly movement of PHDCCI EBM Index and quarterly GDP growth rates are highly correlated at 0.8 as depicted in Chart-2, said Sanjay Aggarwal.
|Chart-1 : PHDCCI EBM Index: Monthly Trend (Base: 2018-19=100)||Chart-2 : PHDCCI EBM Index (Base: 2018-19=100) and GDP Growth Rates (in %): Quarterly Trend|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index; GDP growth figures compiled from MOSPI
At this juncture, there is a need to further fuel the drivers of household consumption and private investments to enhance the aggregate demand in the economy as it will have an accelerated effect on expansion of capital investments in the country, said Sanjay Aggarwal
The Government should frontload the National Infra Pipeline expenditure as increased spending on infrastructure will give a multiplier effect to rejuvenate the aggregate demand in the economy, said Aggarwal
More and more direct benefit transfers needs to be considered for the urban and rural poor under the various welfare schemes in addition to the free distribution of dry rations till Diwali as already announced by the Hon’ble Prime Minister.
Vaccination of population should be continued with a more faster pace, let’s target to vaccinate at least half of the population with both the doses by end October 2021, said Sanjay Aggarwal.
PHDCCI EBM (Economic and Business Momentum) Index has shown steady recovery from the lows of 78.3 for April 2020 to 100.3 for April 2021, 95.3 for May 2021 as compared with 85.7 for May 2020, 98 for June 2021 as compared to 91.6 in June 2020 and 101.9 for July 2021 as compared to 95.5 in July 2020 with a base of 2018-19=100.
PHDCCI EBM Index is a composite index of 25 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which considers the demand and supply indicators to present a broad perspective of the economy. The 25 indicators include the IIP Consumer durable goods, IIP Consumer non-durable goods, IIP Capital Goods, IIP Intermediate Goods, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petroleum Refinery Products, Fertilisers, Steel, Cement, Electricity, Consumption of Petroleum products, Export Merchandise, Export Services, India Freight Traffic, Credit to Agriculture, Credit to Industry, Credit to service sector, Personal Loans, GST Collections, SENSEX, FDI Equity Inflows, External commercial borrowings and Unemployment.
Full PHDCCI EBM Index report attached
PHDCCI EBM Index
|Sr No||Economic Indicators||July-20||July-21||(July’21 – July’20)|
|1||IIP Consumer durable goods||84||101||17|
|2||IIP Consumer non-durable goods||121||119||(-)2|
|3||IIP Capital Goods||73||94||21|
|4||IIP Intermediate Goods||101||115||14|
|8||Petroleum Refinery Products||93||100||6|
|13||Consumption of Petroleum products||96||104||8|
|14||Export Merchandise Growth||109||163||54|
|16||India Freight Traffic||104||107||3|
|17||Credit to Agriculture||105||112||7|
|18||Credit to Industry||101||101||0|
|19||Credit to service sector||110||103||(-)7|
|22||SENSEX (Daily average)||134||191||57|
|23||FDI Equity Inflows||82||157||75|
|24||External commercial borrowings||117||187||70|
|Composite Weighted Index||96||102||6|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index Note: For calculation purpose, the FDI figure for July 2021 is average of last 3 months; figures are rounded off
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry