PR No – 152
13th July
New Delhi
Geopolitical supply chain challenges push provisional Y-o-Y CPI inflation to 4.38% in June, 2026, PHDCCI
Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 4.38% in June, 2026, well within Reserve Bank of India’s threshold of +/- 2% from 4% monetary policy target. Rising food prices, reflected by a CFPI of 5.32% is driven by increase in transportation costs.
However, the provisional inflation of 4.38% remained below PHDCCIs proprietary forecast model’s ®️ estimate of 4.75% (estimated as of March, 2026).
The increase in headline inflation was primarily driven by higher prices of food items, particularly ginger, tomato and raisins, while precious metals such as silver and gold jewellery continued to record elevated inflation. Ginger, requiring humid conditions, saw an inflation of 50.41% in June, 2026 while tomato prices inflated by 31.92% Y-o-Y in the same period.
Inflation remained elevated in Personal care and miscellaneous services (16.72%) and Restaurants and Accommodation services (6.91%).
“The increase in retail inflation during June 2026 is primarily attributable to higher food prices. While headline inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band, sustained pressures in food inflation warrant continued policy attention”, says Mr. Rajeev Juneja, President, PHDCCI.
Rural inflation stood at 4.74%, higher than the 3.92% recorded in urban areas, indicating relatively stronger price pressures in rural markets. Food inflation remained elevated across both segments, with rural food inflation at 5.45% and urban food inflation at 5.09%.
“The divergence between rural and urban inflation highlights the need for continued efforts to improve supply-side efficiencies and agricultural productivity. Going forward, a favourable monsoon, and efficient distribution systems will be critical in moderating food inflationary pressures while supporting consumption and investment”, said Dr. Ranjeet Mehta, SG & CEO, PHDCCI.