PHDCCI Economy GPS Index February 2021

No. PR- 241

March 3, 2021

New Delhi

 

 

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index February 2021

 

Economic activity remains intact, GDP poised to enter double digit growth trajectory in FY 2022: PHD Chamber

 

The series of broad-based policy measures undertaken by the Government during the last 11 months have enhanced the economic activity at significantly higher level,  the  February  month  economic activity based on the composite index of three broad economic indicators including GST collections, Passenger Vehicle Sales and SENSEX hits all-time high at  122.0 at a base year of 2018-19 equal to 100, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a press statement issued here today.

 

PHDCI Economy GPS Index was 103 in February 2020,  which has shown an improvement of 19 points in February 2021 over February 2020, said Mr. Aggarwal

 

The trend in PHDCCI Economy GPS Index shows that the Indian economy is moving forward in the direction of improved momentum as compared to that of its level in February 2020, he siad

 

On the back of robust measures of policy stimulus undertaken by the Government and the announcement of a demand creating, growth oriented and investment stimulating union budget 2021-22, the higher trend of PHDCCI Economy GPS Index to the tune of its all-time high value of 122.0 in February 2021 reinforces the growing business and demand momentum in the country and further the government's view that the economy is in a V-shaped recovery, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.

 

The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index during the period April – February of FY 2020-21 stands at 92.4 as compared with April – February FY 2019-2020 at  99.5. The growing trend of  PHDCCI Economy GPS Index indicate a stronger outlook of Indian Economy in the FY2021–22, said Mr. Aggarwal

 

A sharp recovery in GDP growth in Q3 FY 2020-21 at 0.4% as compared with (-)7.3% in Q2 and (-) 24.4% in Q1 2020-21 (as per revised NSO estimates) is a result of impactful reforms undertaken by the Government since March 2020. Further, as a result of recovering investor sentiment, economy has potential to accelerate at 11% growth trajectory in the next financial year 2021-22 as envisioned by  the FY 2020-21 Economic survey of Government of India, said Mr. Aggarwal.

 

 

   Movement of  GDP and GPS over the quarters                              GPS Index: Monthly Trend (Base: 2018-19=100)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index

Note: GPD growth rate figure for Q4 FY 2020-21 is projection made by PHDCCI

 

On a monthly basis, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has shown sharp recovery from the lows of 39.6 in April 2020 to 50.1 in May 2020, 75.1 in June 2020, 85.6 in July 2020, 90.5 in August 2020, 100.2 in September 2020, 109.6 in October 2020, 106.9 in November 2020, 114.9 in December 2020, 121.7 in January 2021 and 122.0 in February 2021, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal

 

The economic and business indicators have shown a remarkable improvement due to which Economy GPS index increased to 110.4 in Q3 FY 2020-21 from 92.1 in Q2 FY 2020-21 and 54.1 Q1  FY 2020-21, said Mr. Aggarwal

 

The proactive reforms undertaken by the Government in last 11 months have pulled the economy from the low growth of (-)24.4% in Q1 FY 2020-21 and (-)7.3% in Q2 FY2020-21 to 0.4% in Q3 FY 2020-21. The continuous improvement in the key economic and business indicators suggests that the economic recovery is turning from steady to speedy path and expectations of GDP growth at more than 2% in Q4 FY 2020-21 are becoming strong, said he said

 

For the month of February 2021, values of passenger vehicles sales and SENSEX (Daily average) of PHDCCI Economy GPS Index stood at their all-time high as measured across the last four financial years.  Sales of passenger vehicles grew for the sixth straight month and stood all-time high at 3,08,593 units in February 2021. Further, SENSEX (Daily average) was at its all-time high  at 50782.8 and GST Collection crossed ₹ 1 lakh crore-mark for the fifth straight month and stood at ₹ 1,13,143 crore in in the month of February 2021, an increase of 7.3 per cent compared with the same month last year in 2020 , said Mr. Aggarwal     

 

Going forward, demand creation will have an accelerator effect on expansion of capital investments in the country. Additionally, greater infrastructural spending by the government would help stimulate confidence further among firms and households, generating stronger consumption, investment, and employment upturns, he said

 

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy.  The three broad indicators are representing not only demand and supply but also revenue growth of the government and financial markets movement in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicate mood of the investors both domestic and foreign and India’s attractiveness to the foreign investors on the back of various reforms undertaken by the government, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal

 

Movement of Economy GPS over the months

 

Month- Year          PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
Jul-17 72.3
Aug-17 96.8
Sep-17 98.2
Oct-17 94.9
Nov-17 92.0
Dec-17 88.0
Jan-18 96.7
Feb-18 93.6
Mar-18 97.8
Apr-18 102.1
May-18 100.1
Jun-18 97.7
Jul-18 100.9
Aug-18 101.2
Sep-18 101.4
Oct-18 99.8
Nov-18 97.4
Dec-18 93.7
Jan-19 101.4
Feb-19 98.8
Mar-19 105.6
Apr-19 104.0
May-19 98.1
Jun-19 97.3
Jul-19 94.3
Aug-19 91.0
Sep-19 92.4
Oct-19 102.0
Nov-19 103.9
Dec-19 101.0
Jan-20 107.1
Feb-20 103.2
Mar-20 80.0
Apr-20 39.6
May-20 50.1
Jun-20 75.1
Jul-20 85.6
Aug-20 90.5
Sep-20 100.2
Oct-20 109.6
Nov-20 106.9
Dec-20 114.8
Jan-21 121.7
Feb-21 122.0

 

Ends

Media Division

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry